Singapore Real Estate 2026: Private Housing Supply & Market Analysis
- Stanley Wong
- 7 days ago
- 15 min read
Introduction: What 1H 2026 Means for Singapore's Real Estate Market
The real estate landscape in Singapore is entering a critical inflection point. On December 2, 2025, the government announced its Government Land Sales (GLS) programme for the first half of 2026—a decision that will fundamentally shape residential property acquisition strategies for the next 18 months. As someone deeply embedded in Singapore's property sector, I've spent considerable time analyzing these announcements, and I want to share what this sustained supply commitment means for buyers, investors, and industry professionals alike.
The 1H 2026 GLS programme represents far more than just a collection of land parcels for tender. It reflects a calculated government response to a market in transition—one where prices have stabilized, sales have accelerated, and underlying demand remains extraordinarily robust. This article examines every dimension of the 1H 2026 housing supply, providing the granular analysis necessary to navigate real estate in Singapore with confidence and strategic precision.
Singapore's Real Estate Market in Transition: Understanding the Context
Before diving into the 1H 2026 specifics, context is essential for appreciating why this GLS programme matters so profoundly. Singapore's residential property market has undergone a remarkable transformation since 2021.
From 2021 to 2024, private residential properties experienced explosive growth—a robust 10.6% increase in 2021, followed by moderating gains in subsequent years as market fundamentals normalized. By the first nine months of 2025, price appreciation had settled to a measured 2.7%—a far cry from earlier exuberance, yet still meaningful in absolute terms.
What's particularly fascinating from my perspective in Singapore's real estate sector is the divergence between price growth and transaction volumes. While prices moderated, sales accelerated dramatically. Developers sold an estimated 10,564 new private homes (excluding executive condominiums) from January through November 2025—the first time in four years that annual sales surpassed the 10,000-unit threshold. This divergence reveals something crucial: the market has shifted from speculative fervor to fundamental absorption.
For 2025 overall, Singapore delivered 17,705 private housing units (including ECs)—the highest annual supply since 2014. This sustained high supply demonstrates deliberate government management of housing affordability while maintaining residential property development momentum. The 1H 2026 GLS programme continues this balancing act, maintaining supply at historically elevated levels despite moderation in price growth.
Understanding the 1H 2026 GLS Programme: Numbers and Structure
Confirmed List: 4,575 Private Homes Across Nine Residential Sites
The Confirmed List comprises nine residential development sites capable of yielding 4,575 private homes (including 635 executive condominium units) and 22,500 square meters of commercial space. This represents a slight 3.2% decrease from the 4,725 units offered in 2H 2025, yet remains significantly above historical averages. For context, the 4,575-unit Confirmed List represents the lowest supply in three years—the last time supply fell to this level was 1H 2023, when 4,090 units were offered. However, the current level substantially exceeds the 3,190-unit average maintained from 2021-2023, demonstrating sustained commitment to residential property supply across Singapore.
Of particular note: seven sites on the 1H 2026 Confirmed List are newly introduced, while two sites represent extensions or expansions of existing development areas. The geographic distribution spans multiple growth corridors—from emerging precincts at Bayshore and Newton to established upgrader markets in Bedok and Sembawang.
Reserve List: 4,610 Additional Residential Units
Beyond the Confirmed List, the government has positioned 12 sites on the Reserve List, collectively offering 4,610 residential units. Reserve List sites provide developer flexibility—they can be triggered for tender if market demand justifies development, allowing the government to calibrate supply precisely to market conditions. This measured approach reflects pragmatic real estate market management, particularly given macroeconomic uncertainties affecting the Asia-Pacific region in 2026.
Site-by-Site Breakdown: Where Residential Property Development is Accelerating in Singapore
From my perspective analyzing Singapore's real estate sector, the most compelling aspect of the 1H 2026 GLS programme is how strategically positioned each site is. The government has clearly thought deeply about geographic distribution, transport connectivity, and developer feasibility. Let me walk through the standout opportunities:
New Upper Changi Road: The 1,040-Unit Cornerstone in East Singapore
The New Upper Changi Road site represents one of the most compelling opportunities in Singapore's 1H 2026 residential property offerings. Capable of yielding approximately 1,040 units, this development will sit within walking distance of the Bedok MRT station and the upcoming Bedok Integrated Transport Hub. For property buyers and investors prioritizing accessibility, this location offers unparalleled convenience—proximity to Bedok Mall, Bedok Hawker Centre, and essential medical facilities at Bedok Public Library and Polyclinic.
This residential property location in Singapore particularly appeals to upgraders. Bedok represents an established, mature estate with comprehensive amenities, excellent schools, and a proven track record of capital appreciation. The substantial size—1,040 units—makes this one of the largest Confirmed List sites in three years, signaling developer confidence and market absorption capacity in Singapore's real estate market. Developers are likely to view this site as an exceptional opportunity to accumulate land inventory and expand their residential property portfolios after strong 2025 sales performance.
Bayshore Drive: 1,280 Units and the Mixed-Use Future of Singapore Real Estate
The Bayshore Drive site—at 5.74 hectares and capable of yielding 1,280 residential units plus 22,500 square meters of commercial space—represents the largest offering in the 1H 2026 GLS programme and exemplifies the mixed-use real estate development increasingly central to Singapore's residential property strategy.
Bayshore Drive occupies a particularly strategic position within the emerging Bayshore precinct, where the government is deliberately driving estate revitalization through coordinated residential property supply and commercial amenity integration. The site will be directly integrated with the upcoming Bedok South station on the Thomson-East Coast Line (TEL), providing exceptional transport connectivity that historically drives residential property appreciation in Singapore.
The significance of this mixed-use character cannot be overstated. Past integrated developments like Parktown Residence, Pasir Ris 8, and Lentor Modern have demonstrated how commercial-residential integration attracts both developers and homebuyers seeking comprehensive lifestyle environments. For real estate investors focused on the Singapore residential property market, Bayshore Drive represents exposure to the broader "live-work-play" paradigm increasingly defining urban living in Singapore.
Moreover, the Bayshore estate revitalization is part of the government's deliberate strategy to develop the east region, particularly the Bayshore and Bedok areas. Combined with planned sea views and comprehensive public spaces, this residential property development in Singapore is positioned to attract substantial upgrader demand from nearby established towns—Tampines, Pasir Ris, and Marine Parade—where existing residents are seeking enhanced amenities and modern living standards.
Berlayar Drive: 415 Units in the Emerging Greater Southern Waterfront
The Berlayar Drive site will accommodate approximately 415 units and sits within the emerging Greater Southern Waterfront (GSW) region—one of Singapore's most ambitious long-term real estate development initiatives. This residential property location benefits from unobstructed sea views overlooking Keppel Bay, positioning it squarely within Singapore's premium real estate in Singapore segment.
The Greater Southern Waterfront represents a 2,000-hectare transformation extending from Gardens by the Bay to Pasir Panjang, designed to create a seamless live-work-play urban environment that capitalizes on waterfront living appeal. Berlayar Drive forms part of the former Keppel Club site within this broader development framework, and the market has already validated this location's investment potential. The adjacent Telok Blangah Road parcel was sold at a land rate of $1,326 per square foot per plot ratio during its November 2025 tender closing, demonstrating robust market appetite for residential property in this precinct.
For Singapore's real estate in Singapore segment, the GSW represents genuine scarcity value—large-scale waterfront residential property development simply doesn't occur frequently in Singapore. Early investors in GSW residential property sites are positioning themselves advantageously for sustained capital appreciation as the broader precinct development unfolds over the coming decade.
Lorong Puntong: 140 Units with Strategic School Proximity
The Lorong Puntong site offers a more manageable 140-unit development scale—an important distinction for developers seeking smaller, more nimble projects. Located a short walk from Bright Hill MRT station on the Thomson-East Coast Line, Lorong Puntong appeals particularly to family-oriented buyers prioritizing proximity to reputable primary schools. The nearby Ai Tong School—a prestigious educational institution—makes this residential property location in Singapore particularly attractive for young families making the transition to private housing.
From my perspective analyzing Singapore's real estate market, smaller sites like Lorong Puntong serve an important market function. They allow smaller and mid-tier developers to participate in the GLS programme without the capital intensity required for mega-projects, diversifying the developer base and promoting competitive pressure that benefits homebuyers through more varied project offerings.
However, developers bidding for Lorong Puntong will need to account for future supply uncertainty, particularly the sizeable Thomson View en bloc site, which could introduce more than 1,200 units into the Brighthills estate, potentially moderating price growth in the immediate vicinity.
Peck Hay Road: 315 Units in the Revitalized Newton Precinct
Peck Hay Road represents the second GLS site within the newly revitalized Newton neighbourhood—a cornerstone of Singapore's Core Central Region residential property development strategy. The site will yield approximately 315 new private homes within the Scotts Road-Newton-Monk's Hill precinct, as outlined in the recently gazetted URA Master Plan 2025.
The competitive dynamics surrounding Newton are worth emphasizing. The adjacent Bukit Timah Road plot—the first Newton precinct private residential site to be released in nearly three decades—attracted eight competitive bids, with the winning bid reaching $1,820 per square foot per plot ratio. This exceptional valuation underscores the market's strong appetite for well-connected Core Central Region residential property in Singapore.
The Newton revitalization envisions approximately 5,000 private homes across three clusters (Newton Circus, Scotts Road, and Monk's Hill), with a vibrant "Village Square" being developed around the Newton MRT interchange station. This represents genuine scarcity value for Singapore's real estate market—new residential property supply in the Core Central Region is exceptionally limited. For investors seeking prime positioning within Singapore's most exclusive residential property market, Peck Hay Road represents a meaningful opportunity.
Canberra Drive and Sembawang Drive: Executive Condominium Focus
The 1H 2026 GLS programme maintains the government's commitment to executive condominium supply, with two EC plots at Canberra Drive (185 units) and Sembawang Drive contributing to the total 635 EC units offered. The Canberra Drive EC plot particularly attracts attention due to its direct proximity to Canberra MRT station, providing exceptional transport connectivity that historically drives EC residential property appreciation in Singapore.
The EC Market Transformation: Executive Condominiums as Serious Real Estate Investment
Executive condominiums deserve separate, detailed analysis given their transformational role within Singapore's residential property market. The EC segment has evolved from "budget condos" to serious investment assets commanding record prices.
New ECs now sell for approximately $1,754 per square foot—more than double the $797 per square foot fetched in 2015—with some 2025 launches reaching $1,800 per square foot. This dramatic appreciation reflects three converging forces: land scarcity, rising construction costs, and relentless upgrader demand.
Land scarcity is particularly acute within the EC market. Between 2010-2014, the government released approximately 7.8 EC sites annually. Since 2015, that average has plummeted to 2.2 sites per year—a 72% reduction that has compressed supply dramatically. Developers now compete aggressively for limited GLS EC sites, with land rates surging from $284 per square foot per plot ratio in 2015 to $748 per square foot per plot ratio in 2025—a 164% spike.
Yet demand remains remarkably resilient. As of October 2025, only approximately 53 new unsold EC units existed across Singapore, and recent launches have achieved exceptional absorption rates. Otto Place in Tengah sold 58.5% of units at launch ($1,700 per square foot), while Novo Place hit $1,654 per square foot and cleared over half its units on opening weekend.
For the 1H 2026 GLS programme, the two EC plots represent meaningful supply calibration. By maintaining steady EC supply, the government supports more measured land bid prices while addressing pent-up demand from HDB upgraders and first-time private property buyers. This residential property segment remains Singapore's most accessible entry point into private housing for wealth-building Singaporeans.
Market Drivers: Why 1H 2026 Supply Matters Now
Three fundamental forces explain why the government's decision to sustain 1H 2026 private housing supply is strategically significant:
1. Easing Interest Rate Environment: The benign mortgage rate outlook creates optimal conditions for residential property acquisition in Singapore. With core inflation subdued and GDP growth moderating, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has maintained an accommodative policy stance. SORA rates are expected to decline from current levels, potentially reaching 1.0-1.5% by 2026, substantially improving affordability for residential property buyers. Lower financing costs directly translate to higher purchasing power for HDB upgraders and first-time homebuyers—precisely the demographics fueling 1H 2026 demand in Singapore's real estate market.
2. Compressed Unsold Inventory: As of Q3 2025, unsold uncompleted private homes (excluding ECs) hit a seven-quarter low of 17,029 units. At conservative annual sales of 7,000 units, this inventory absorbs within three years—a healthy market equilibrium. For developers and residential property investors in Singapore, this compressed inventory signals opportunity, not oversupply. Developers are confident that new supply will be absorbed, justifying aggressive GLS site participation.
3. Baby Boomer Wealth Effect: Singapore's aging population continues accumulating extraordinary wealth, driving both investment property acquisitions and primary residence upgrades. This demographic tailwind—unique among developed Asia-Pacific markets—will support demand across premium residential property segments throughout 2026 and beyond. The older cohort, with accumulated savings and property equity, increasingly views residential real estate in Singapore as their most significant wealth-building asset.
Regional Analysis: Where Will Residential Property Growth Concentrate?
1H 2026 supply isn't uniformly distributed across Singapore's geography. Instead, it reflects deliberate government positioning across three distinct residential property market segments:
Central Region (CR) and Core Central Region (CCR): Premium Positioning
The Newton and Peck Hay Road sites represent exceptional additions to Singapore's Core Central Region residential property supply. These precincts face extraordinary scarcity—the last meaningful CCR GLS site release predates recent years significantly. The limited new supply combined with strong international investor demand (despite 60% ABSD constraints) positions CCR residential property for sustained premium positioning in Singapore's real estate market.
Prime Central Region properties command a natural scarcity premium. Analysts project 3-6% appreciation for CCR homes in 2026, substantially outpacing suburban segments. For investors prioritizing exposure to Singapore's most exclusive addresses, Newton and the Greater Southern Waterfront represent rare opportunities.
Rest of Central Region (RCR): Upgrader-Driven Markets
The Bayshore Drive and Berlayar Drive sites occupy RCR positioning, attracting substantial upgrader demand from established towns. These precincts benefit from proximity to mature amenities, excellent schools, and proven residential quality-of-life indicators. RCR residential property in Singapore typically commands 2-4% appreciation, reflecting balanced supply-demand dynamics and natural affordability limitations.
Fringe and Suburban: Volume Absorption
Lorong Puntong, Sembawang Drive (EC), and Canberra Drive (EC) serve fringe and suburban market segments, absorbing first-time buyers and HDB upgraders seeking affordable private housing alternatives. While appreciation in these segments typically moderates to 1-3%, the market absorption capacity is substantially larger—addressing genuine affordability constraints for Singapore's growing wealth-aspirant demographic.
Interest Rates and Mortgage Affordability: The 2026 Advantage
Interest rate trajectories profoundly influence residential property acquisition decisions. For 2026, the mortgage rate environment appears exceptionally favorable compared to 2022-2024.
The 3-month Singapore Overnight Rate Average (SORA) is expected to decline from current levels toward 1.0-1.5% in 2026. This accommodative trajectory reflects multiple factors: subdued core inflation (hovering around 0.6% year-on-year in mid-2025), moderating GDP growth expectations (2.2% projected for 2026), and MAS's preference for gradual S$NEER appreciation rather than explicit policy rate manipulation.
For residential property buyers in Singapore, lower SORA implies reduced financing costs. A homebuyer with an outstanding $500,000 mortgage sees monthly payments decrease by approximately $200-300 with each 0.5% reduction in floating rates—a meaningful improvement in repayment capacity. This interest rate advantage particularly benefits HDB upgraders and first-time homebuyers who may have been deterred by 2022-2024 financing costs.
Infrastructure Integration: The MRT Effect and Residential Property Values
One of the most underappreciated drivers of residential property appreciation in Singapore is infrastructure connectivity—particularly Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) proximity. The Thomson-East Coast Line (TEL) expansion exemplifies this "MRT Effect" with extraordinary clarity.
Since the TEL's Stage 4 opening in 2024, introducing seven new stations (including Bayshore and the upcoming Bedok South station), residential property values have surged dramatically. Non-landed private residential listings within 0.8 km of new TEL stations rose to 2,619 in Q3 2024, compared to just 410 in 2023—a staggering 4.8x year-on-year increase. Property views nearly doubled, illustrating sharp buyer interest directly linked to connectivity improvements.
More concretely: non-landed private homes within 10-minute walking distance of TEL stations appreciated 6.8% year-on-year, substantially outpacing broader market growth. For 1H 2026, this has profound implications. Both New Upper Changi Road (Bedok MRT) and Bayshore Drive (upcoming Bedok South MRT) benefit from exceptional TEL positioning—positioning that will likely drive above-average capital appreciation throughout 2026-2027.
HDB Upgraders: The Demographic Engine of Singapore's Real Estate Market
The residential property market in Singapore is increasingly driven by a specific demographic: HDB upgraders transitioning from public to private housing. This segment accounts for an extraordinary proportion of private residential property demand.
HDB resale prices have climbed dramatically, with record numbers of million-dollar HDB flats now common across established estates. This price escalation has a counterintuitive consequence: it narrows the price differential between public and private housing, making the leap to private property less daunting for upgraders. When a 4-room HDB flat in Tampines approaches $800,000-$900,000, a $1.2-1.5 million executive condominium or suburban condo suddenly becomes financially accessible.
For real estate professionals analyzing Singapore's residential property market, HDB upgraders represent the most reliable demand constituency. Unlike foreign investors (constrained by 60% ABSD) or pure speculative buyers, HDB upgraders purchase for genuine owner-occupancy. They seek long-term residential stability, family-friendly configurations, and proven neighborhoods—precisely the characteristics that 1H 2026 GLS sites emphasize.
Foreign Buyer Dynamics: ABSD's Lasting Impact on Singapore Real Estate
The Additional Buyer's Stamp Duty (ABSD)—currently 60% for foreign purchasers—has fundamentally restructured Singapore's residential property market. Foreign buyer purchases have plummeted from meaningful volumes to negligible levels, fundamentally shifting market dynamics.
In the first nine months of 2024, only 56 new private homes were purchased by foreign buyers—an astonishingly low figure. By contrast, PR (Permanent Resident) buyers, facing a substantially lower 5% ABSD rate, remain active, particularly in EC and RCR segments.
This ABSD reality has important implications for 1H 2026. The buyer base will be overwhelmingly domestic—Singaporeans and PRs purchasing for owner-occupancy or investment purposes. This domestic orientation actually supports market stability, as owner-occupiers demonstrate greater price discipline and lower speculation propensity compared to foreign speculators.
One notable exception: nationals of Free Trade Agreement (FTA) partner countries (United States, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, Switzerland) benefit from Singapore-equivalent ABSD rates, substantially lowering entry costs. These FTA beneficiaries will likely represent a disproportionate share of 2026 foreign buying activity.
2026 Price Projections: What to Expect for Residential Property in Singapore
Analyzing market fundamentals, most analysts project 1-3% price appreciation for Singapore's residential property market in 2026. However, this aggregate figure masks meaningful segment variation:
Landed Properties: 4-6% appreciation, supported by inelastic supply constraints (only 73,000 landed properties projected across the next 15 years, compared to 500,000 condominiums)
Premium Condominiums (CCR/RCR): 3-4% appreciation, driven by scarcity value and upgrader demand
Suburban/Fringe Condominiums: 1-2% appreciation, moderated by meaningful new supply and volume-driven competition
Executive Condominiums: 2-3% appreciation, supported by limited GLS supply and HDB upgrader demand
This segmentation reflects the fundamental market reality: not all residential property appreciates equally in Singapore. Flight-to-quality prevails—investors and owner-occupiers prioritize premium locations, excellent connectivity, and proven neighborhoods over commodity suburban supply.
Case Study: Understanding Market Dynamics Through Recent GLS Performance
The recent Bukit Timah Road Newton site provides instructive perspective. Released in 1H 2025, this 0.58-hectare plot could yield 340 units within walking distance of Newton MRT. The tender attracted eight competitive bids, with the winning consortium submitting $566.3 million—approximately $1,820 per square foot per plot ratio.
This exceptional valuation despite the site's prime location reflects several realities:
Developer Confidence: The number of competitive bids signals developers' conviction that residential property demand in the Newton neighbourhood remains robust enough to justify premium land valuations.
First-Mover Advantage: Developers recognize that being first to establish a flagship property in an emerging neighbourhood creates market positioning advantages—particularly relevant for CCR residential property development in Singapore.
Scarcity Valuation: Newton hasn't seen significant GLS releases since 1997 (Draycott 8). For developers and investors focused on Singapore's real estate market, this scarcity commands premium valuation.
Frequently Asked Questions: 1H 2026 Residential Property in Singapore
Q: How does 1H 2026 supply compare to historical levels in Singapore's real estate market?A: The 4,575-unit Confirmed List represents the lowest supply in three years but substantially exceeds the 3,190-unit average from 2021-2023. Combined Confirmed and Reserve Lists total 9,185 units—sustaining supply at historically elevated levels.
Q: Which 1H 2026 sites offer the strongest investment potential for residential property buyers in Singapore?A: New Upper Changi Road (1,040 units) and Bayshore Drive (1,280 units) offer exceptional size and transport connectivity. Newton's Peck Hay Road and Berlayar Drive benefit from scarcity premium within the Greater Southern Waterfront. The two EC plots address the undersupplied EC market segment.
Q: How will interest rates impact residential property affordability in 2026?A: SORA rates are expected to decline toward 1.0-1.5% in 2026, substantially improving mortgage affordability. Lower financing costs will particularly benefit HDB upgraders and first-time homebuyers, supporting sustained demand across real estate in Singapore market segments.
Q: Is now a good time to purchase residential property in Singapore?A: For owner-occupiers seeking long-term housing stability, 2026 presents compelling timing: easing interest rates, manageable price growth, diverse project options, and sustained government supply commitment. For investors, segment selection matters enormously—premium locations offer better capital preservation than commodity suburban supply.
Q: What's the market outlook for executive condominiums in 2026?A: Limited EC supply (only five GLS sites confirmed for 2025, below historical averages) combined with compressed unsold inventory (73 units as of October 2025) suggests sustained EC appreciation. EC prices are expected to appreciate 2-3% in 2026, with particular strength near MRT stations.
Conclusion: Navigating Singapore's Real Estate Market Through 1H 2026
The government's decision to sustain private housing supply at elevated levels through 1H 2026 represents far more than bureaucratic consistency. It reflects sophisticated market management—calibrating supply to meet genuine demand without triggering affordability crises or speculative excess.
For residential property buyers, 2026 presents a genuinely compelling opportunity. Interest rates are easing, unsold inventory has compressed, GLS supply remains diverse and strategically positioned, and underlying demand from HDB upgraders remains extraordinarily robust. Unlike 2022-2024, when financing constraints limited many qualified buyers, 2026 offers improved affordability paired with meaningful project diversity.
For investors analyzing Singapore's real estate market, the fundamental principle remains unchanged: location, connectivity, and scarcity drive returns. The 1H 2026 GLS sites demonstrating these characteristics—particularly Newton, Greater Southern Waterfront parcels, and large East Coast developments—offer better capital appreciation potential than commodity suburban offerings.
As the Singapore property market enters 2026, those who approach it with strategic perspective—understanding both macro market dynamics and site-specific characteristics—will position themselves optimally for sustained wealth building through residential property ownership. The 1H 2026 GLS programme, properly understood, provides the roadmap for success.
Comments